APPENDIX: METHODOLOGY & ENDNOTES
Methodology. The Actuarial Research Corporation under contract with the Department of Health and Human Services conducted most of the analysis. The basis for the estimates is the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) for 1995. These data were aged to CY 2000, converted to a point-in-time estimate, and adjusted for the increase in managed care enrollment. This enrollment increase was estimated by moving beneficiaries from retiree health coverage, Medigap and the uninsured to managed care in proportion to their enrollment in those plans.
1 Hazzard WR; Blass JP (Editor); Ettinger WH; Halter JB; Ouslander JG. (1998). Principles of Geriatric Medicine and Gerontology. New York: McGraw Hill.
2 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. (1993). (National High Blood Pressure Education Working Group): Report on primary prevention of hypertension. Archives of Internal Medicine. 153: 186.
3 Wilson PWF. (1991). Established risk factors and coronary artery disease: The Framingham Study. American Journal of Hypertension. 7: 75.
4 SHEP Cooperative Research Group. (1991). Prevention of stroke by hypertensive treatment in older patients with isolated systolic hypertension. JAMA, 265: 3255-3264.
5 Randomized trial of cholesterol lowering in 4444 patients with coronary heart disease: The Scandinavian Simvastatin Survival Study (45). Lancet 1994; 344: 1388-1389.
6 The beta-blocker heart attack trial: Beta-Blocker Heart Attack Study Group. JAMA. 1981; 246: 2073-2074.
7 National Health Interview Survey.
8 Tierney LM; McPhee SJ; Papadakis MA (editors). (1998). Current Medical Diagnosis and Treatment 1998. Appleton and Lange.
9 Tierney LM, et al.; ibid.
10 Soumerai SB; Ross-Degnan D; Avorn J; McLaughlin TJ; Choodnovskiy I. (1987). Payment restrictions for prescription drugs under Medicaid: Effects on therapy, cost and equity. The New England Journal of Medicine, 317: 550-556.
11 Families USA, 1994.
12 Soumerai SB; Ross-Degnan D; Avorn J; McLaughlin TJ; Choodnovskiy I. (1991). Effects of Medicaid drug-payment limits on admissions to hospitals and nursing homes. The New England Journal of Medicine, 325: 1072-1077.
13 Bero LA.; Lipton HL; Bird, JA.. (1991). Characterization of Geriatric Drug-Related Hospital Readmissions. Medical Care, 29 (10): 989-1003.
14 Foster Higgins, National Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Plans, 1998.
15 Foster Higgins, National Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Plans, 1996. As reported in Hewitt Associates. (1997). Retiree Health Trends and Implications of Possible Medicare Reforms. Washington, DC: The Kaiser Medicaid Project.