Appendix C. Goals and Targets of the National Earthquake Loss ReductionProgram (NEP)
The National Earthquake Strategy Working Group recognized that NEHRP lackedan effective means of coordinating non-NEHRP agencies' earthquake activities,as well as efforts of non-governmental and state and local governmentalsectors dealing with earthquakes. A major difficulty in evaluating the successof NEHRP and identifying future priorities has been the lack of specificgoals, targets, and products against which performance can be measured orexpectations revised. The new strategy establishes specific integrated andcoordinated research targets and associated products with timelines forcompletion. Though these targets will undoubtedly be revised, modified,and supplemented as more is learned about earthquake loss reduction, theyprovide a framework for measuring progress.
The following sections set forth the primary goals that define the strategy.Each goal has several targets which in some cases could be described asprojects, but generally are more broadly based. While the targets are prioritizedin order of decreasing importance, the goals are not. For most targets oneor more products have been identified. The aim of the strategy is to maintaina focus on these products as the separate supporting projects are developed,conducted, reviewed, and completed so that information and technology transfermeets public expectations on national earthquake loss reduction. Consistentwith their mission, the Federal agencies planning allocation of limitedearthquake-designated resources will take into account the specific targetsand products identified as high priority issues by the user community inboth the public and private sectors. The dates suggested for meeting targetsor completing products are estimated guidelines, not commitments.
Funds for the attainment of these goals are presumed to be limited to thosecurrently in the budgets of agency programs involved in earthquake researchor loss mitigation technology development. Goal 1: Provide leadership and coordination of federal earthquake research
Targets:
1. Work with the National Science and Technology Council to establish aleadership mechanism to assure implementation of the Strategy. The mechanismshall report every two years to the President and to the Congress on itsfindings, progress, and recommendations relating to earthquake risk reduction.Leadership mechanisms are needed for both national oversight and day-to-daycoordination functions.
2. Integrate federal earthquake-related program planning into the new mechanismover a five year period beginning in Fiscal Year 1996. This shall includea detailed analysis during FY 1996 of agency expenditures and planned expenditureswith the objective of identifying any redundancies and redirecting expenditurestoward high priority targets.
3. Develop a balanced national prioritized research and mitigation agenda,confirmed or adjusted on a regular basis, incorporating a broad-based assessmentof user needs that includes the needs of agencies to support special orunique missions.
4. Facilitate cooperation and leverage across all agencies and groups withprogrammatic interests in earthquake loss reduction, including, but notlimited to federal, state, local, private, voluntary, and public utilityagencies and groups.
5. Develop an overall nationwide strategic plan to integrate and coordinateexisting but currently separate research and mitigation programs into aunified, needs-driven, goal-oriented program consistent with the NationalEarthquake Strategy goals.
6. Advocate policies and practices nationwide and recommend legislationas appropriate.
7. Conduct a biennial performance assessment and report of coordinationand integration activities under the Program. This report shall includeaccomplishments towards achieving the goals and recommendations for improvingthe Strategy. As the Program matures the assessment and report can be conductedat less frequent intervals.
8. Provide a focal point for federal international collaborative programsin research on earthquake loss reduction and in technology transfer forimproved earthquake hazard mitigation. Goal 2: Continue to expand technology transfer and outreach
Targets:
1. Develop credible earthquake scenarios including vulnerabilities and lossestimates which are sensitive to economic and political issues, using GIStechnology.
Products: - Planning and Technical Assistance Guide for Emergency Risk Managersand insurance companies, containing scenarios and estimates of loss applicableto specific earthquake-prone regions.
- By the year 2000, publish credible planning earthquake scenarios forrepresentative cities in the eastern and western United States exposed tothe highest earthquake hazards.
- Produce and distribute non-technical pamphlets on "Managing Earthquakesin My Town" tailored to the hazard risk of the area of distribution.
- Produce and distribute handbook on proper application of land useplanning to reduce risk from seismic hazard.
- Support prototype efforts in appropriate land use.
- Develop response modeling techniques that account for human interactionswith the built environment and the behavior of non-structural systems thatmay contribute to human death or injury or losses of property and functionality.
- Develop model approaches and other recommendations for improving emergencypreparedness, recovery and reconstruction planning including topics of earthquakecasualties, economic losses, and disruptions to communication, transportation,medical, pubic health, and other critical systems, and human responses tothese problems.
- Issue reliable and comprehensive estimates of future losses due toearthquakes and models to make direct comparisons of impacts between regionsof the nation.
2. Develop assessments of the costs and benefits of various mitigation strategiesfor new and existing construction.
Products: - Handbook to assist facility and community planning groups to understandand estimate their own risk exposure, and realistically estimate mitigationcosts and retrofit disruption impacts. Address alternative mitigation andpreparedness strategies.
- Engineering criteria handbook for retrofit/rehabilitation of existingfacilities.
- Seismic Program Planning Guide with information on property valueincrease and insurance premium decrease (as provided by the insurance industry)available to support the cost of: 1) studies and planning, 2) non-structuralseismic safety hazard mitigation, and 3) retrofitting/rehabilitation ofbuildings.
3. Targeted training and education programs.
Products: - Develop, with university instructors, materials suitable for inclusionin building design, architecture, and engineering courses.
- Mass media training seminars and "users manual".
- K-12 grade school teaching modules focusing on the science and technologyof seismic mitigation.
- "Training in the work place" curriculum materials.
- Post-earthquake response plans that will provide to federal, state,and local public officials, private industry, and the public informationon the cause and effects of earthquakes, the potential for continuing hazard,and the means to recover from the event in the first hours, days, and weeksafter an earthquake.
- Newspaper inserts.
- Traveling museum exhibits.
- National Engineers Week teaching module.
- Training programs for design professionals on new hazard mitigationmethods.
4. Encourage and assist regional consortia.
Products: - Training exercises to strengthen federal, state, and local partnerships.
- Support and expand the audience for existing training programs.
5. Embrace and support voluntary mitigation.
6. Communicate achievements, progress, and successes of the National Earthquakeloss reduction Program and its member agencies and alliances
Products: - Short, simple, non-technical summaries of knowledge.
- Newsletters in hard copy and electronic mail.
- CD-Roms with extensive cross-referencing to all earthquake-relatedwork.
7. Encourage and assist the insurance industry through publishing regularreports and presenting updates in information and methodology at insuranceindustry fora.
8. Develop and disseminate tools for design professionals that incorporatestate-of-the-art information on mitigation strategies and methods.
Products: - Technical briefs on earth science issues written for design professionals(e.g. how to interpret liquefaction potential maps).
- Guidelines on specific aspects of design (e.g. pushover analyses).
- Computer software for improved design of construction.
Goal 3: Improve engineering of the built environment
Targets:
1. Develop improved analytical techniques for dynamic, non-linear responseof complex, unconventional materials, structures, and lifelines.
Products: - Numerical methods, computer software, and modeling procedures to simulatethree-dimensional elastic response, inelastic response of basic structure,and soil structure interaction.
- Experimental verifications under laboratory and field conditions ofbasic seismic behavior of structures and their protective systems.
- Composite materials and hybrid systems consisting of new and existingmaterials, particularly high-performance materials.
- Dam/reservoir systems including three-dimensional dam-fluid-foundationinteractions and sediment effects.
2. Develop new and innovative systems of construction that are economicalyet inherently earthquake resistant.
Products: - Active, passive, and hybrid control technologies.
- System designed semi-rigid frames and braced frames.
- Improved design methods for high-strength concrete structures, steelstructures, composite and hybrid structures.
3. Develop performance-based * design concepts and criteria for buildingsand lifeline systems.
Products: - Universal damage indices for different types of constructions andengineering systems.
- Damage indices versus earthquake intensity, frequency content, andduration studies for different constructions.
- Probabilistic measures of failure.
- Performance-damage index statistics, studies to develop earthquakeparameters and damage-cost relationships for different types of construction,and cost-benefit studies in a probabilistic framework to develop performance-basedguidelines for the western, central, and eastern United States.
[*Performance-based design criteria go beyond the intentof extant codes by incorporating a combination of more stringent practicesin hazard definition, design analysis, test, construction, and inspectionspecifically tailored to ensure a specified level of structure damage controland contents functionality for a defined earthquake threat.]
4. Understand seismic behavior of non-building structures and lifeline systems.
Products: - Dynamic earthquake behavior of network systems of bridges, other transportationarteries and nodes, power, water, sewage, and communications systems.
- Earthquake countermeasures including development of on-line inspection,monitoring, and control capability, and optimal network management techniques.
- Systems-integrated institutional effectiveness and productivity assessmentmethodologies to determine infrastructure system losses due to social/economicimpediments.
5. Develop effective and economical methods to evaluate and retrofit existingseismically hazardous structures.
Products: - Performance criteria and engineering design manuals for retrofit measures.
- Advanced technologies for infrastructure health condition assessmentand monitoring.
- Analysis of economic issues related to decisions to retrofit, leavein present condition, or demolish structures, and the selection of retrofittechniques.
- Investigation of architectural/functional issues.
- Effective methods of prioritizing retrofit efforts regionally andby structural type considering potential hazard, limitations of economicresources, and social demand and impact.
6. Develop experimental engineering research capability and conduct verificationand proof-of-principle projects.
Products: - Comprehensive examination of long-term experimental earthquake engineeringresearch needs and corresponding requirements for technical manpower, testingfacilities, and financial resources.
- Detailed investigation and qualification of earthquake-resistant designconcepts and viability of protective systems.
- Upgrade existing experimental facilities and establish new facilitiesas needed and allowed by budgetary constraints.
Goal 4: Improve data for construction standards and codes
Targets:
1. Develop and make available for use by code writing bodies, stateinsurance offices, and insurance firms resource documents on improved, functionality-preservingseismic design criteria for new buildings and other structures, includingcost estimates.
Products:
By the year 1998 - - Provide guidance on earthquake risk reduction to federally supportedday care centers and schools in moderate to very high earthquake hazardareas.
- Provide guidance on earthquake risk reduction to all hospitals andmedical care facilities in moderate to very high earthquake hazard areas.
- Provide a catalog of risk reduction activities to private insurancecompanies.
By the year 2000 - - Develop performance-based design criteria for new buildings and otherstructures, including non-structural systems and requirements for functionalityof essential buildings, and implement the criteria in national standardsand model building codes and the practices of federal agencies.
- Develop consistent, prescriptive criteria for small new buildings,including criteria for non-structural systems, and implement the criteriain national standards and model building codes and the practices of federalagencies.
- Develop prescriptive model earthquake building code requirements.
- Develop and implement programs which educate state and local governmentofficials, designers, builders, and building officials towards code adoptionand implementation.
- Suggest implementation incentives (permits, financing, insurance,resale) which account for social context.
- Provide consensus-based information, in non-technical terms, on regionalseismic risk affecting 41 States and U.S. Territories.
2. Develop and make available resource documents for use by code writingbodies, insurance companies, and regulators on performance-based seismicdesign standards for lifelines.
Products: - By the year 1997, prepare and deliver guidance packages on mitigationgrants and case studies of mitigation products to 30% of school districtsin moderate to very high earthquake hazard areas.
- By the year 1998, provide guidelines for the seismic safety of newand existing lifelines.
- By the year 2000, propose national standards for functionality-preservingseismic design of new lifeline construction.
- By the year 2000, conduct 20 workshops for building investors anddevelopers in moderate to very high earthquake hazard areas.
- By the year 2003, propose national standards for seismic evaluationand retrofit of existing lifeline infrastructure.
3. By the year 2005, develop and make available resource documents for useby code writing bodies, insurance companies, and regulators on rehabilitationstandards for existing buildings and other structures.
Products: - By the year 1996, develop and conduct courses on seismic design, engineering,and siting for architectural and engineering faculty.
- By the year 1996, develop teaching modules on earthquake science andmitigation technology for K-12 grades and provide teacher enhancement workshopsto encourage integration of modules in existing K-12 curricula.
- By the year 2000, establish earthquake safety education programs inall federal agencies in moderate to very high earthquake hazard areas.
- By the year 2000, develop technologies for assessing the conditionof existing buildings, cost-effective strengthening techniques, and rationalguidelines for the assessment and strengthening of populations of potentiallyhazardous existing buildings.
- By the year 2005, implement the above technologies through nationalstandards and model building codes.
- Support building retrofit/rehabilitation demonstration projects.
- Identify, collect and publish a compendium of existing design guides.
- Field test the compendium of design guides in demonstration projects.
4. By the year 2000, introduce multi-hazard standards.
Products: - Basic prescriptive wind, earthquake, and tsunami model building practicerequirements.
- Education towards code adoption.
- Training of designers and contractors.
- Collaborate with the insurance industry on multi-hazard rating andloss modeling.
5. Develop improved capabilities for analysis and testing of structures,including lifelines.
Products: - Detailed study, such as the shake table study, comparing options requestedfor completion in FY 95.
- Structural response modeling techniques that account for nonlinearand inelastic behavior of buildings and structures, and active and passivecontrol systems to increase resistance to structural collapse.
- Capabilities to predict the dynamic and inelastic response of a specificstructure (for all types of buildings and lifelines) to a specific, freefield ground motion with consideration of soil-foundation-structure interaction,and damping and hysteretic energy absorption for inelastic structural response.
- Proof-testing capability to test products.
6. Develop means to mitigate tsunami effects by incorporating readings fromdeep-water pressure sensors to improve early tsunami warning systems. Goal 5: Continue development of seismic hazards and risk assessmenttools
Targets:
1. Improve loss estimation methodology. Develop earthquake scenarios linkingbuilding types and lifelines with the effects of strong shaking and groundfailure to provide better estimates of life losses, injury, public healthimpact, property losses, and indirect economic effects.
Products:
- Identification of, and predicted seismic intensities for, areas vulnerableto site amplification of strong ground motion.
- Hazard maps suitable for planning and engineering in critical urbanand suburban areas vulnerable to site amplification liquefaction and landslides.
- Predictive models for liquefaction-induced ground deformation andeffects on building foundations, lifelines, and waterfront properties.
- Standards of practice for hazard analysis and mitigation of groundfailures.
- Standards for the management of shelters for people with special needs,such as people evacuated from hospitals or nursing homes.
2. By the year 1998, develop seismic risk assessment methodology and quantifyseismic risk for communities exposed to high seismic hazard.
Products: - Inventories and database of information on buildings and lifelinesat risk.
- Quantitative loading models accounting for bedrock ground shaking,site effects, duration of shaking and interactions of the structure withsupporting soils and rock.
- New techniques for seismic microzonation that will ultimately takeinto account potential losses of the built environment and will influencepolicies and practices.
3. By the year 2000, provide demonstration seismic hazard microzonationmaps for representative sections of selected cities exposed to the highestearthquake hazard.
Products: - First maps for trial use and comment by the year 1998
- Digital surficial and bedrock geology maps for major urban areas atrisk from earthquakes showing areas of potential ground failure (liquefaction,landslides, lateral spreads, and others).
4. By the year 2005, provide regional seismic hazard maps, interpretations,and guidelines as the basis for seismic zonation, implementation of earthquakecodes, and local land-use decisions.
Products: - Characterize the earthquake potential (including the magnitude, frequencyand effects of future earthquakes) of the United States on a regional andnational basis to a precision of at least 200 km.
- Identify active faults, define their geometry, and determine the characteristicsand dates of past earthquakes.
- Predict strong ground shaking and ground failure, including subsidence,landslides, and liquefaction.
- Predict regional earthquake losses due to identified earthquake hazardsthrough the use of modern statistical methodologies.
- Identify zones of earth movement in the eastern United States whereactive faults are not present at the surface.
- Conduct a series of workshops across the country in order to assimilate,incorporate, and share more than a decade of federal, academic, and privatesector research into the estimates of seismic source zones.
5. Improve earthquake hazard assessment and forecasting using historicalseismicity and paleoseismicity, and evaluate the role of emerging technologiessuch as Global Positioning System (GPS), Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)differential interferometry, high performance seismometers, borehole strainmeters,and monitoring of microseismicity and hydrologic effects at depth.
Products: - Develop and evaluate methods for short- and intermediate-term earthquakeforecasts and apply the methodologies to selected regions with high earthquakepotential.
- Determine the accumulation of crustal strain in a GPS network gridof sufficient density in earthquake-prone regions to evaluate whether thesedata allow estimates of short- to moderate-term earthquake potential (completegrid deployment by 1999).
- Integrate synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data on small crustal movementsfor earthquake sequences in southern California with satellite and aircraftradar data to complement the continuous observations available from GPSand seismic arrays (begin systematic aircraft SAR measurements in 1996).
- Deploy and operate an expanded network of permanently-placed GPS receiversand develop the necessary regional centers for data analysis, supplementingreceivers with complementary installation of boreholes at select sites.
- Develop and evaluate methods for long-term forecasting using historicalseismicity and paleoseismicity.
- Monitor microseismicity and hydrologic phenomena such as well waterlevels to characterize crustal strain at depth.
6. Provide high-quality earthquake recordings and derived basic seismicinformation to researchers and practitioners on an ongoing basis.
Products: - Complete planned modernization of the U.S. earthquake recording capabilityby completing development of the National Seismic Network stations by theyear 2000.
- Upgrade seismic networks to include broad-band, digital stations augmentedwith three component strong-motion sensors.
- Establish near-real time recording standards for the National SeismicNetwork.
- Complete the Global Seismic Network and IRIS data center.
- Update and expand national strong-motion network to digitally recordground motion and structural response in urban zones of highest risk.
7. Understand critical earthquake topics such as plate interactions in subductionzones, blind faults, and fold and thrust belts appropriate to such geographicallydiverse areas as the Pacific Northwest, mid-continent, and Eastern UnitedStates.
Products: - Models of fault system dynamics and interactions for specific regionsat risk.
- Synthetic seismograms for strong ground motion and space/time histories.
- Geologic studies of exhumed faults, geophysical surveys to remotelydetermine fault zone properties, scientific drilling for sampling and in-situproperties determination, laboratory rock mechanics experiments, and induced-seismicitystudies.
- Quantitative models of the physics of the earthquake process, includinggeneric physical models of the earthquake cycle, methods relating seismicwaveforms and fault slip, wave propagation effects, and general featuresof rupture.
- Testing forecasting/prediction methodologies using ideas from thesciences of chaos and complexity, including neural networks and non-lineartime series prediction.
8. Improve understanding of strong ground motions, including nonlinear siteresponse, directivity and topographic effects, and foundation instability.
Products: - Conduct research on recorded motion and publish results in a formatunderstandable to design professionals.
- Develop site-specific ground motion models for engineering design.
- Develop techniques for engineering assessment of liquefaction effects,soil-structure interaction, landslide and foundation subsidence.
9. Provide an accessible digital GIS database.
Products: - By the year 2000, acquire and make accessible over the INTERNET thedigital topographic maps needed to cover major urban areas with the highestseismic risks.
- By the year 2005, make accessible over the INTERNET a catalog of existingearthquake hazard- and risk-related GIS data sets, including data sets fromlocal and state agencies, and a list of the types of information most neededin digital form by various users, including building code writers and insurancecompanies.
10. Improve foreknowledge of and response to tsunami hazards.
Products: - By the year 2000, acquire and make accessible over the INTERNET thedigital topographic maps needed to cover major urban areas with the highestseismic risks.
- Provide demonstration inundation maps for tsunami-threatened coastaltowns (pattern after hurricane surge inundation maps in use over the past30 years for the east and Gulf of Mexico coastal area) using GIS technology.
- Link offshore wave measurements to tsunami warning systems to providea near- real time warning capability to coastal systems.
- Identify evacuation procedures and routes and warning systems.
- Provide demonstration all-hazard maps (tsunamis, flooding, and geologic)using GIS format for select sites along the west coast.
Goal 6: Analyze seismic hazard mitigation incentives
Targets:
1. Evaluate mechanisms and advise Congress and relevant Executive BranchOffices to achieve adoption and enforcement by the year 2000 of up-to-datemodel building codes and standards to govern all new building and lifelinedesign and construction.
2. Provide guidance and lead by example on specific mitigation measureswhich may be used in a federal incentive program.
Products: - Provide text to extend Executive Order 12699 to include "indirectly"financed federally assisted construction projects.
- Provide guidance for developing a community rating system for seismichazards.
3. Better understand the socioeconomic barriers to mitigation and preparedness.
Products: - Identify risk mitigation measures associated with insurance coveragefor workers compensation, fire, professional errors and omissions, generalliability, and other lines that account for most of the expected insuredlosses.
- Foster the practice of professional peer review (not plan checking)for design of new and retrofit/rehabilitation of existing important, unique,essential, and critical facilities.
- Establish national standards for professional competence in relevantprofessions (geology, engineering, construction, emergency response).
3. Investigate barriers to insurance premium restructuring.
Products: - Identify insurance regulatory reforms to reduce barriers.
Goal 7: Develop understanding of the societal and institutional issuesrelated to earthquake hazard reduction
Targets:
1. Determine the social and economic benefits and costs of various mitigationmeasures such as codes, land-use planning, insurance, and educational programsfor different sectors of society.
Products: - Knowledge base for model mitigation and preparedness programs in at-riskregions of the country.
- Recommendations for the most effective mix of mitigation strategies.
- Hazard reduction factors that can be translated into insurance premiumdiscounts.
2. Identify the social, economic, and political factors that facilitateand hinder the adoption and implementation of seismic safety measures.
Products: - Information on the characteristics of populations exposed to earthquakehazards and the differences among the various social groups and institutionalsectors in their vulnerability.
- Information on risk perception and its impact on mitigation and preparednessactions.
- Recommendations for improving the effectiveness of hazard informationand dissemination efforts.
- Knowledge on the effectiveness of incentives and regulations in furtheringmitigation and preparedness actions.
3. Investigate the societal responses to earthquakes, including emergencyresponse systems, and individual, business, and community recovery fromsuch events.
Products: - Information on the acquisition, communication, and utilization ofrisk and damage information.
- Assessments of the effectiveness of existing mitigation and preparednessmechanisms and identification of alternative approaches.
- Guidelines on ways in which the reconstruction period can be usedby decision makers to reduce future vulnerability.
4. Analyze multi-hazard mitigation and preparedness planning.
Products: - Comparisons of responses to earthquakes and other hazards and disasters.
- Techniques for integrating seismic safety planning into a community'sgeneral planning efforts.
- Basis for transferring policies which have proved successful in reducingother natural hazard risks to the earthquake context.
- Techniques for integrating seismic safety planning and other hazardsinto a multi- hazard community planning approach.
Goal 8: Analyze the medical and public health consequences of earthquakes
Targets:
1. Identify potential strategies to prevent or mitigate the adverse publichealth consequences of earthquakes through epidemiological research.
2. Integrate casualty and medical needs predictions into earthquake lossestimates.
Products: - Realistic models for estimating casualties and medical requirements.
- Realistic scenarios for pre-earthquake preparedness simulations, andexercises.
3. Develop validated indicators for rapid assessment of the health effectsand potential health effects of earthquakes and related health needs inorder to determine the most appropriate medical requirements during thecritical first few hours after impact.
4. Develop more effective rescue, medical training, and public health programs.
5. Review effective operational procedures for meeting the health needsof people with special requirements such as evacuees from hospitals andnursing homes.
6. Develop an emergency communications system to ensure effective coordinationof medical and health needs at the local, State, and federal levels. Goal 9: Continue documentation of earthquakes and their effects
Targets:
1. Establish standards and specifications for official documentation ofearthquakes by 1996.
2. Prepare and publish a reconnaissance report, collect ephemeral data,and complete major aspects of a research plan within one year of each majorearthquake event.
3. Prepare and publish an in-depth report within four years of each majorearthquake event.
4. Post information on electronic data base for easy access by any interestedparty.